How To Be A Pundit

It's embarrassing that on this, a political blog, I haven't written a darn tootin' thing about the midterms. Assuming you forgive me, let's move on... to 2008. This was a year in which every poll and prediction was discussed as a euphemism for either Bush's failed presidency or the 2008 contest. Talking with an attractive, intelligent lady this morning, I was told that perhaps it would be helpful to write out some rubric for making sense of the contenders so we can rely on something more substantive than homespun aphorisms about politics and the electorate.

So, if you want to be the best talking head at your next lefty gathering, here are the questions you need to ask yourself about each candidate from Obama to yo mama:

1. A candidate must win the primary before triangulating, even Bill "I can please everyone in the room" Clinton knew that. So, who are his/her natural constituents within his/her party? Are they women? Union members? The anti-war majority? Veterans? Social conservatives?
2. Does that natural constituency have the resources, skills and infrastructure to mobilize voters in the early primaries--Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc?
3. Are the elites in the candidate's party united or divided? In other words, many have speculated that G.W. Bush and John McCain made a deal in 2004 that if McCain campaigned for him, Bush would support him in 2008. Thus, McCain will not have to fight as hard for the upper echelon Republicans from the socially conservative wing. And he already has the fiscal conservatives and disaffected Republicans lined up.
4. Does the candidate have not just natural allies, but natural enemies? For example, how effective will the Clinton-haters be in derailing Hillary? Or more likely, could Bill Clinton's superior charisma and command undermine his wife's authority? Could racism and bigotry actually prevent an Obama win? Would anti-Mormon sentiment block Mitt Romney from rising to the top of the list?
5. Money--who can raise it? And think creatively, don't just look at the numbers as they are now. Remember that there are very talented fundraisers such as Nancy Pelosi, Lou Wasserman, and a slew of rich people who bankrolled Kerry. Where will their loyalties lay?
   
6. Will the situation in Iraq continue to worsen? Will troop numbers increase or decrease? Will a war supporter be electable in 2008?
7. How exclusive is the candidate? Do you have to agree with him/her on all points or does he/she pitch a big tent, so to speak? (Insert lame sex joke here)
8. What coalitions will be formed around the candidate? And I don't be swift boat captains and "truth" lovers. No, I mean something more along the lines of anti-immigration voters and stem cell research activists or fiscal conservatives and anti-war soccer moms.
9. Who has already started campaigning? Look at how much money John Kerry has raised for Democrats in the past 2 years. Or the way Edwards has canvassed the country. Who are they talking to, directly and indirectly?
   
10. And finally, who would Hank Hill vote for?
    

This will be the first presidential election in 56 years in which no sitting president or vice president is in the race, so be ready for surprises. Don't buy into the water cooler crap about tall candidates winning or a strong narrative reigning supreme. One year ago no one imagined the Dems taking back both houses of Congress; things change. And no matter what the other pundits say, this isn't a horse race. That's just their dumbed down metaphor for all things political because they think it makes it all more exciting. It's not a linear race to the finish. Politics is a complex system of building various kinds of support across every demographic. It's about compromises, building alliances and neutralizing your competition.

Good luck, and happy speculating!